Millennials, Baby Boomers Still Driving CRE

Millennials, Baby Boomers Still Driving CRE

July 2016

The retail, healthcare, multifamily and hospitality sectors are all seeing gains from America’s two biggest generations — the Baby Boomers and the Millennials, as each reaches a different life stage.  According to research from Marcus & Millichap, these two groups comprise 150 million Americans whose spending makes up 30 percent of the U.S. GDP.  That’s a lot of buying power and a boost for the commercial real estate industry. Here’s a look at some key findings:

Bisnow multifamily yardi

Multifamily Gains — Millennials, the renting generation, have fueled the completion of 215,000 new apartment units over the past 12 months. With the absorption of 237,000 units, vacancy has fallen to 4.2 percent, leaving developers room to build even more.

Restaurants Rules — Because they’re not spending on houses and goods, many millennials are spending more on experiences. The bar and restaurant industry has seen a 6.5 percent gain in sales over the last year.

Hotel occupancy is up — to 60.7 percent in the first quarter of 2016, making it the second highest quarter on record, according to Marcus & Millichap.

Retail is stronger — SoBeverly Hills Marriottme millennial are starting to settle down and buy homes or move out from roommate situations, leading to a large increase in spending in several retail sectors. Both home furnishing and home improvement retail stores have seen a 3.6 percent increase over the past year.

Retail

Image via NREI Online

Don’t forget the Boomers — Medication sales, plus an expanded pool of Boomers with insurance pushed sales at drug stores up 8.3 percent from a year ago.

By 2020, 57 million people — 16 percent of the population — will be over 65. Don’t count this age group out, as the spending is likely to continue to drive these key sectors.

Midwest Update: A Closer Look at Retail (and More)

Midwest Update: A Closer Look at Retail (and More)

March 2016

The retail sector has issues. The health care sector has opportunities. Chicago has a few huge commercial real estate projects that might just get off the ground after years of being dormant. These are just a few of the stories we’re tracking:

Retail

Photo via NREI Online

  • Retail woes: We wrote about retailers struggling to strike a balance between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores last week. NREI put together a list of 12 retailers who are in bad shape and have been forced to close physical stores. Radio Shack, Barnes & Noble and J.Crew all make the list. (Via NREI Online)
  • Are physical stores better for the environment? While we’re on the topic of retail, a recent study by Simon Property Group indicates brick-and-mortar shopping might actually be more sustainable than shopping online. Assuming consumers purchased the same goods online and in a physical location, the study found that online shopping had a 7 percent greater environmental impact over brick-and-mortar shopping every year. (Via REIT.com)
  • Fewer banks are lending a hand: As economic growth in the U.S. slows, it appears that lenders are getting more cautious about funding domestic real estate developments. A six-year recovery has meant good times for investors, but Mark Myers, the head of the commercial real estate business at Wells Fargo & Co., predicts that banks are going to change their approach to be more cautious this year. That could force landlords to look elsewhere for funding. (Via Bloomberg)
    The Old Main Post Office in Chicago is currently unused (photo via Wikimedia).

    The Old Main Post Office in Chicago is currently unused (photo via Wikimedia).

  • Playing the odds in Chicago: Crain’s has a fun look at four of Chicago’s biggest (and most controversial) real estate projects. Progress has been made on three of the properties in recent weeks, and all four have massive potential. Personal favorite: imagining what could be done with the Old Main Post Office in the West Loop. (Via Crain’s Chicago)
  • Opportunities in health care: John Wilson, president of Chicago-based HSA PrimeCare, outlined the types of properties and markets his company looks for in an interview with GlobeSt.com. Wilson called the health care sector fruitful and said there are even opportunities in secondary markets, provided those markets had strong hospital systems. Cities with universities or state capitals are also good markers. Wilson’s specific examples included Lincoln, Nebraska; Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Columbus, Ohio. (Via GlobeSt)
Retailers Still Working on Mastering E-Commerce Model

Retailers Still Working on Mastering E-Commerce Model

March 2016E-commerce

Nordstrom is struggling, and e-commerce (and perhaps shipping costs) might be partly to blame. That’s according to a recent Bloomberg.com story by Shelly Banjo.

The luxury retailer has seen the price of its shares plummet over the past year and missed its fourth-quarter earnings estimates last month. CFO Mike Koppel talked about Nordstrom’s rough stretch with Bloomberg.com, giving some insight into some of the issues retailers face as they split their focus between brick-and-mortar stores and selling products online.

E-commerce isn’t going away. Nordstrom expects that 30 percent of its sales will come online by 2020, compared to just 8 percent in 2010. But retailers don’t have as good a handle on the e-commerce model as they would like.

Brick-and-mortar stores might seem increasingly old fashioned, but retailers knew how to plan for that model. You build your store. You train your staff. Once you paid off those initial overhead costs, the profits flow in–ideally!

Selling online brings the benefit of low overhead (less of a need for labor and physical stores). But the more retailers like Nordstrom sell online, the more they have to spend to collect and ship the goods to customers. It all adds up!

Nordstrom is trying to catch up to e-commerce competitors like Amazon. But it’s finding that e-commerce isn’t always as profitable a business as physical stores. Nordstrom – and other retailers – will need to figure out the model soon.

Midwest Update: Atlanta Good for Industrial, Office

Midwest Update: Atlanta Good for Industrial, Office

March 2016Atlanta

It’s a good time to be in the Atlanta commercial real estate market. Research shows the southeastern hub enjoyed a prosperous 2015, with strong industrial and office absorption figures pushing vacancy rates in those sectors down to levels not seen since the turn of the century.

Clearly the Atlanta market is gaining momentum. Here are a few Atlanta-focused stories and trends worth tracking:

  • Another good year for industrial: Atlanta’s industrial market performed particularly well in 2015, absorbing the third-most square footage in the United States. That’s according to research from Colliers International, which also found that the industrial vacancy rate dropped to its lowest point since the first quarter of 2001. 
  • The office sector’s perfect storm: The mix of high absorption activity with minimal deliveries helped Atlanta achieve its best office market results since 2000 last year. Colliers found that Atlanta’s office absorption totaled 4.8 million square feet, the highest annual total in 15 years. 
  • Benefits of build-to-suit: Atlanta, with its strong industrial market, is one of the cities that has seen a rise in build-to-suit projects in recent years. With more tenants seeking new technologies and specialized buildings, this isn’t a trend that’s likely to go away anytime soon. (Story via GlobeSt)
  • The future of cars: What would Atlanta look like if there were cars, but no drivers? That was the subject of a recent program called “Evolving Transportation and the Future of Commercial Real Estate” hosted by the Urban Land Institute. Industry experts debated the potential impact of this technology, looking at how it might change variables like parking for current (and future) developments. (Story via Curbed)
Foreign Investment Continues to Fuel CRE Market

Foreign Investment Continues to Fuel CRE Market

February 2016

cross-border investors

Cross-border investors target industrial properties in 2015. (Photo via GlobeSt)

Cross-border investors seized a larger share of the U.S. market in 2015, continuing a buyer spree that has fueled the market for several years.

Research from Real Capital Analytics’ latest U.S. Capital Trends Report found that deal volume for cross-border investors rose 123 percent from 2014 to 2015. That gave that class of investors a 16 percent share of the deal activity in the market.

RCA found that cross-border investors targeted properties in both gateway cities and secondary markets. JLL reported similar findings in its latest U.S. Investment Outlook report. According to JLL, foreign investment in the U.S. broke a seven-year-old record high by more than $30 billion.

As Steve Collins, international director and president of JLL Capital Markets—Americas, told GlobeSt, “While we’re seeing volatility and uncertainty in parts of the financial markets, the relative strength of economic and leasing fundamentals continues to position the United States as an attractive, healthy and transparent market for cross-border investment.”

GlobeSt has a close look at the reports from Real Capital Analytics and JLL.

Other highlights from RCA’s report include:

  • Overseas buyers dominated U.S. industrial assets, purchasing more than any other group.
  • Institutional/fund capital sources represented 35 percent of apartment, office and hotel portfolios in 2015.
  • Digging deeper, those buyers accounted for 43 percent of apartment portfolio sales, a leap up from 24 percent in 2014.
  • Public investors fell back in the past year as volume dropped five percent.
90 North Finds Value in Suburban Office Markets

90 North Finds Value in Suburban Office Markets

February 2016

90 North Real Estate Partners made big news this week with its purchase of the Saint-Gobain North American headquarters in suburban Philadelphia. The $123 million purchase was made with investment partner Arzan Wealth.

Saint Gobain 2

The move continued a strategy 90 North has favored since it opened its Chicago-based North American headquarters in 2014: Target safe, long-term investments in strong office markets. More often than not, that strategy has led 90 North to focus its attention on the suburbs.

90 North is now in suburban Philadelphia, and its growing U.S. portfolio also includes the following properties:

  • A 351,425-SF, Class A office building in Deer Park, Illinois, leased long-term to Continental Automotive Systems, Inc.
  • A 175,155-SF, Class A office building in Denver that houses the FBI headquarters for Colorado and Wyoming
  • The 67-acre Lenovo Enterprise Campus in the Research Triangle Park, Raleigh, North Carolina. The two-building, 450,000 SF complex is fully leased long-term to Lenovo’s Global Server division
ReserveOpenHouse-002(1)

The Reserve at Deer Park, purchased by 90 North in 2014

All three properties have strong tenants that will allow 90 North to safely weather any economic downturn. The Saint-Gobain property had the added bonus of a strong international tenant that had recently signed a long term lease and spent millions renovating their complex– very good signs for any investor.

As Daniel Cooper, partner and head of North America for 90 North, told GlobeSt.com this week, “The point we’re trying to make is that the suburbs are not dead.”

Retail Sales Still on the Rise Early in 2016

Retail Sales Still on the Rise Early in 2016

February 2016Retail sales

When it comes to shopping, U.S. consumers aren’t being swayed by snow, nor rain, nor … well, you get the idea.

The month of January brought bad weather for much of the country. But that didn’t stop consumers from heading to brick-and-mortar stores or online retailers in droves. The fact that overall retail sales grew in January is remarkable considering the volatility in global markets and overseas economies. The rise in retail sales is in line with other indicators of growing economic strength.

Still, it’s a small sample size, right? Well, last month actually stands as part of a greater trend. Total retail sales jumped 3.4 percent over the 12 months that ended Jan. 31, according to research by Marcus & Millichap.

There are two factors most responsible for the growth:

  • The price of gas is low enough that consumers find themselves with more money to spend.
  • Consumers have proven themselves willing to spend that money.

Spending in categories like food and drink (as well as more frivolous pursuits) is up across the board over the last 12 months. Further evidence of consumer confidence comes in the form of a rise in sales on larger, long-lasting items. Building materials and furniture sales rose over the past 12 months. Marcus & Millichap projects U.S. retail vacancy to drop 30 basis points to 5.9 percent in 2016.

It appears consumers are taking advantage of stable employment outlook and loosening up a bit. That’s great news for retail sales.

90 North Buys $123M Saint-Gobain Campus in Philadelphia

90 North Buys $123M Saint-Gobain Campus in Philadelphia

February 2016

Saint-GobainThe Wall Street Journal has the latest on Open Slate client 90 North Real Estate Partners and its $123M acquisition near Philadelphia. Based in the UK, 90 North is known for its deep understanding of the global investment market and focus on stability and long-term value.

The 320K SF, two-building campus includes office and research and development space. 90 North and a unit of Arzan Financial Group of Kuwait bought the 65-acre campus in Malvern, PA, outside Philadelphia. Dan Cooper, head of North America for 90 North, had this to say about their strategy for buying the Saint-Gobain corporate HQ:

“We look for assets that can weather any industry or market cycle” — As global investors, 90 North looks at properties in the US and abroad and is drawn by assets that have the security of strong tenancy and the stability that the US market affords. “At the end of the day, we need to know that the asset will perform well and can weather any cycle or market downturn,” Cooper says. “When you have a tenant that has committed millions of dollars into renovating a building and then signs a long term lease, that’s what helps us sleep at night.”

Saint Gobain 2“It is a validation that suburban marketplaces remain extremely viable — The Saint-Gobain campus is 30 minutes outside of Philadelphia and is a sizable campus within a submarket known as the High Tech Corridor. With immediate access to the entire area—including downtown Philadelphia, the submarket is home to numerous innovative technology, medical, and pharmaceutical firms as well as excellent schools and residential neighborhoods.

“This type of scenario is playing out in many cities across the country,” Cooper says. “We saw it in Raleigh when we purchased the Lenovo Campus last year and we see it in cities such as Austin, Denver, Chicago, Atlanta and Dallas.”

Check out the Wall Street Journal story here.

Economy Experts Talk Rough January and Outlook for CRE

Economy Experts Talk Rough January and Outlook for CRE

February 2016

If you pay any attention to the global economy, you know January wasn’t a ton of fun.

But still, it was just one month. Can it really say anything about the future of the commercial real estate market in the United States? Bisnow.com got the opinions of six top economists, and as you might expect, those opinions vary.

Economy

Stockbrokers struggled through the worst January since 2009 this year.

Some cautioned against paying too much attention to the market (and the resulting bluster from politicians and cable news). Others predicted pain in the short-term but economic success in the long-term. The general feeling seemed to be: “Be patient, we’ve seen this before.”

Here are the highlights:

  • Robert Bach, director of research – Americas for Newmark Grubb Knight Frank: Bach confessed some angst, but told Bisnow, “If the economy muddles through, so will commercial real estate.”
  • Ray Torto, Harvard lecturer and former global chief economist at CBRE: Torto predicts a positive long-term outlook for CRE and pins the blame for short-term struggles on factors like low oil prices and China’s drooping stock market. “Hope is not a tactic to pursue right now,” he told Bisnow. “Implement careful planning and executions.”
  • George Ratiu, director of quantitative and commercial research for the National Association of Realtors: Have no fear; the CRE market has seen this before (and recently, too). “Looking at the post-recession recovery, we’ve had other periods of volatility … which had minimal impact on CRE performance,” Ratiu told Bisnow.
  • Jack G. Kern, director – research and publications for Yardi: Kern says CRE is naturally affected by global stock markets, but doesn’t see an issue as long as proper precautions are taken. “Properties bought based on solid underwriting and reasonable fundamentals will continue to do fine,” he told Bisnow. “Those acquired without recognizing the risks properly will be back on the market soon enough.”
  • Victor Calanog, chief economist at Reis: Calanog isn’t expecting 2016 to mimic last year. “Property fundamentals rocked 2015, but we expect 2016 to be a bit rockier,” he told Bisnow.

With January (thankfully) in the rearview mirror, this CRE topic will be worth monitoring as we wait to see if the global economy improves.

Ryan Companies Closes on Land in Prime Chicago Suburb

Ryan Companies Closes on Land in Prime Chicago Suburb

February 2016

Ryan Companies

The office market in Oak Brook is in high demand.

Ryan Companies is making a splash in a highly valued suburban Chicago office market.

GlobeSt.com has all the details of the Minneapolis-based CRE firm’s purchase of 11 acres at the I-88/I-294 interchange in Oak Brook. Plans call for a combined office and medical campus complete with structured parking.

As Tim Hennelly, president of Ryan’s Great Lakes region, told GlobeSt., “This acquisition continues our strategic approach for Ryan to be a leader in delivering complex, signature developments in proven markets and asset classes throughout the Chicago metropolitan area.”

Location is a key part of the transaction, which proves there are still strong suburban markets capable of attracting development. Vacancy rates for class A properties in Oak Brook are low (per NAI Hiffman’s year-end office market report), making the type of office space Ryan plans to develop extremely attractive.