Steady Outlook for Commercial Real Estate, Says ULI

Steady Outlook for Commercial Real Estate, Says ULI

Oct. 2018

What’s ahead for the U.S. commercial real estate market? Steady as it goes, according to this ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast.

Economist expect the market to remain strong for the rest of 2018 and continue to grow until at least 2020.  With continued job and GDP growth, vacancy rates in most sectors will stay steady or continue to decrease and rents will continue to rise, but at a decreased rate. In the following sectors, vacancy rates will all remain well below their respective 20-year averages:

  • Multifamily
  • Industrial
  • Office

Multifamily Sector Remains Strong, Says ULI

Apartments, which have led the charge in real estate growth, will retain their low vacancy rates, edging up to 5.2% by 2020. Experts anticipate apartment rental rates will grow by 2.9% in 2018, heading to 2% by 2020.

Job growth will continue to fuel the expansion of real estate. Experts anticipate the creation of 2.4 million new jobs in 2018, 1.9 million new jobs in 2019, and 1 million in 2020.

Industrial Update

As the industrial sector continues its strong run, the ULI forecast shows a slight slowdown in rental rate growth over time. In the past five years, industrial warehouse rental rates have grown significantly above the long-term average. The outlook calls for increases of 3.9% in 2018, 3.3% in ‘19, and 2.4% in ‘20.

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