As the multifamily sector recalibrates from a two-year oversupply cycle, some key geographic regions are seeing supply accelerate again. Most notably is the Southeast, where business expansion and other factors continue to support inward migration.
Despite the slowdown in apartment starts nationwide, 21 markets in Yardi Matrix’s database have over 8% of inventory in the pipeline. The Southwest Florida Coast is at the top of the list with 18,278 units under construction, representing 15.37% of the stock, followed by Asheville, North Carolina, with 3,888 units (14.77% of the stock). Rounding out the top five are Montana with 3,460 units (13.95% of the stock); Port St. Lucie, Florida with 3,077 units (13.64% of the stock); and Northwest Arkansas with 6,035 units (12.64% of the stock). The supply outlook for other markets include:
- Northern New Jersey — 24,681
- Charlotte, NC — 24,369
- Miami, FL — 20,069
- Brooklyn — 18.062
- Omaha, NE — 12,126
- North Central, FL — 6,632
New supply in some of these markets is expected to be problematic over the next 18 months as owners working through the current oversupply will face yet another round of competition.
Multifamily supply projections increase
Yardi Matrix has increased its near-term supply forecast as of the third quarter. For 2026, it is projecting 490,362 unit completions, a 2.5% increase over its second quarter estimate. While 2027 is unchanged at 444,434, Yardi has increased its 2028 projection by 1.3% to 455,442 completions. The supply forecast for 2029 to 2031 also remained unchanged at between 455,821 and 460,381 units.
